We’ve been following a bullish signal that formed off the daily chart, but unfortunately was taken out due to some volatility caused by some heavy New Zealand data releases.
In the wake of that event a new bullish signal has formed which has provided a second chance bullish opportunity.
The large, thick bodies bullish rejection candle is a reversal signal that has formed off this level marked on the chart above, which is actually a very strong level on the weekly chart.
These weekly levels generally have a high impact on price action, and are where high probability reversals can be targeted.
A restracement entry, if possible, will provide a tighter stop and double the return potential compared to the late daily signal.
It is hard to find good trades in these slow summer trading conditions, lets see how this one plays out.
Best of luck on the charts everybody.
marquin
Hi Dale, I’m also watching the aud/nzd it fell two more levels waiting for a clear entry signal.
Replying to: marquin
Steve Epperson
Not telling you what to do or anything, but….. on the 4hr chart, it hit a double bottom at about 1.04000 after a large, convincing selloff. I would still not be too sure if the bulls are going to take it back up. Just too much uncertainty. I’m waiting for a convincing break either up or down. Whichever way it goes, I will enter the new trend (or breakout) about 2-3 bars into it. Either way, my stop is going to be very close to that 1.04000 level. Hope this helps.
Joao seco
Hi, thanks for both your comments. Much appreciated. If you allow me share my latest trade then: USDCAD, bearish signal at 1.28600 which coincides with major weekly level around July 14. I got in at 1.29100 and profitable at the moment but I am looking usd data releases and yelled speach, undecided if closing at near 1.29500 May be the best option? Thanks, Joao
Replying to: Joao seco
Steve Epperson
Stay in the trade until your profit target is reached.
Joao Seco
Hi Dale, I folliwed your signal and managed a reasonable entry on retracement and had my stop loss at 1.05000. When I realise it was going to be overrun I moved it to the next level at 1.04300 but now I am wondering what would you do in this situation?
Many thanks
Joao
Replying to: Joao Seco
Dale WoodsAuthor
This signal didn’t work out, you just screwed yourself by moving your stop loss. You should never do that. The original stop loss is there for a reason!
Replying to: Joao Seco
Steve Epperson
Hi Joao,
I know you have seen a lot of traders move their initial stop loss. The only justifiable reason to do that is if you are in a winning trade, you are over half way to your profit target and you want to move the stop to a break even level so you can just completely forget about that position. In your case, I feel you should have left it alone. I know firsthand how hard it is to see that candle move down to that level where you know you are going to lose money. I get it. In fact, I lose about 60% of my swing trades. But with Dale’s help, I have managed to not lose money. And as I get more proficient, I know I will be more profitable as time goes on. Hang in there, and don’t give up. Please tell us when you do win, so we can all cheer for you.